A Rough Estimate of the Healthy Forests Biomass Removals Requirement

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B-nDeUZACg-0cTF6SDM2aWl1eWc

This is a piece written in support of the reopening of the Loyalton Biomass Plant, for the purposes of disposing of the overloads of understory fuels that are at the core of the poor health of the western mixed-conifer forests.  It develops a model of constant annual removals of fuels from an estimate of Loyalton's logistical hinterland. primarily the watersheds of the Middle Fork of the Feather River and the Little Truckee River, and part of the watershed of the East Branch of the North Fork of the Feather.

It is expressed primarily in the terms of the energy industry, since at the time of writing energy conversion (as replacement for baseloaded fossil resources) this seemed the most likely elastic-demand use for the healthy forests biomass removals requirement. 

With full carbon accounting, especially at climate-change-crisis efficient pricing, a range of products, notably including conversion to fullerenes and other carbon structures, or simply into biochar, are increasingly relevant.  Biomass and biofuels are also potential uses.   In all these cases the large economies of scale in industrial organic chemistry are important, and the logistics of transportation to efficient-scale facilities (such as those on the San Francisco Bay) become important.  On page 6, the estimate is converted to 40 railcars per day from Loyalton, which when expanded to several neighboring hinterlands produces 160 railcars per day down the Union Pacific Feather River Canyou route just from the territory of the old Quincy Library Group.  Since the BNSF "High Line,"  which splits from the UP mainline at Keddie Junction (near Quincy) passes through Westwood on its way to Bend, John Day, and other timber towns all the way to the Canadian border, the amount of healthy-forests biomass available in the logistical hinterland of the Richmond-Crockett-Martinez-Benicia industrial-organic-chemicals complex is sufficient to supplant a substantial fraction of its existing fossil feedstocks, using essentially the same processing technology.  This approach, in turn, supports substantial reinvestment in the rail network, specifically the electrification, complementary with other aspects of the efficient green new deal  infrastructure program of which forest health restoration is the natural heart and soul.

This paper was also a call for improvement of these estimates.  Locally, the Sierraville District Ranger suggests that the estimate for Loyalton significantly underestimates the volumes of healthy forests biomass removals requirements.  At the same time, the operators of the facility (American Renewable Power, ARP) are using a lower estimate to support the development of a proposal to rebuild the rail spur from Loyalton to the UP mainline at Hawley, and to return to service the switchyard at Portola that previously served the Loyalton spur (and was a primary driver of Portola's local economy). |

It is important to get these values nailed down.  In particular, if ARP is using the lower estimates to support real estate development of the Loyalton site in ways that interfere with the site's efficient use  for pre-transportation processing (for conventional wood products, or just for pulverising and driying for efficient rail transport to efficient chemical facilities), then significant policy and possibly regulatory issues come into play.  Time is of the essence, before any more costly financial transactions.

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